Real Estate Information Archive

"But Jeremy, I offered above full list price and STILL got beat out! What gives?

If I had $5 for every Buyer who has been shocked (and dismayed) about having to "compete" for homes in this so-called "Buyer's" market, I'd have a nice little vacation fund built up.

Today we talk about

• the "Tale of 2 Markets", those listings that are "in" the market, and those that are "out" of the market;
• why Buyers are getting into bidding wars in St. George, Utah as well as other Western markets,
• and also why Sellers have to get in the "critical 20%" if they are going to sell.

Below this video is a copy of the chart I discuss in the video. Enjoy!

I wish I could say YES, but I'm afraid the answer is NO. First let's look at recent efforts to curb the foreclosure tidal-wave.

Oh Crap........

As many are aware, foreclosure filings dipped in November by 7%, most likely due to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae-imposed Moratoriums designed to give lenders and borrowers more time to sort through loan modifications or other means of staving off the foreclosure wolves.

In addition to the moratoriums, the following factors also aided in slowing filings:

• New Laws - Many states requiring lenders take greater action to avoid foreclosures such as  requiring contact with borrowers earlier in the default process.
• Loan Modifications - I mentioned recently that I had contracted with a company whose' chief aim was to be the "middle man" between lender and borrower to put in place some type of modifcation to the loan to keep them in the home.

So why will they go back up? Because we are simply treating the symptoms, not the disease. 

According to a recent report on the subject, more than 1/2 of the homeowners who received loan workouts in the first half of 2008 are ALREADY behind again!

The disease is the following: We were living  above our means, typically on credit borrowed from our homes, now our homes are worth enough, home sales are down, and suddenly we are out of work. It is a vicious cycle.

The symptom is foreclosure, whether it be on a home or a car or a ski-boat.

For what it's worth, the states with the highest foreclosure rates in November were (surprise, surprise) Nevada, Florida and Arizona.

What does this mean locally? Tough to know, but what we DO know is this: Most people who took out risky ARM mortgages took them out in 3, 5 or 7 year increments. Well I'm no math wiz, but this summer's foreclosure boom was exactly 3 years from the peak of the market.

One wonders what could happen in 2010 (5 years) and 2012 (7 years).

The good news for St. George / Southern Utah is that, frankly, it is one of the best places to live on the entire planet and numerous magazines and independent groups will corraborate that statement.

A place like Mesquite, Nevada (sorry folks) could see some real trouble as Randy Black shuts down casinos and hundreds of laborers leave for greener pastures.

A question to all: How do we treat the disease?

The St. George  Marathon was wet for the first time in 25 years, according to Leisure Services director Kent Perkins.

“This was a great opportunity for us to see how we could deal with adversity,” Perkins said. “It wasn’t a fast race by any means, but there are still a lot of people who persevered and did really well.”

I ran 2 years ago under a starry cover at the 6:45 AM start and perfect blue skies as the day broke. It was almost too hot by the finish.

My wife has run 3 times and is (obviously) considerably more insane than I am. The proof of this statement was last year when she showed up with essentially no training whatsoever and ran the race. This might not be a big feat for the "alpha males" and hard-core distance athletes of the world, but Megan will be the first to tell you that she is not a runner.

I went to mile 15/16 which is essentially at the entrance to Snow Canyon State Park to "pick her up" as per her pre-race plan to accompany friends to that spot and drop out. Instead she was all smiles and just kept going. What a woman!

Going to the Marathon Finish line has been a tradition of mine for many, many years. It began with wathching my father run "back in the day." If you don't get choked up watching people of all ages, shapes and sizes struggle in after 26.2, you may not be human. The general "energy" around town the entire weekend is electrifying and the traffic is downright 'thick' by Southern Utah Standards, but it adds to the excitement.

If you haven't run or at least attended the St. George Marathon, put in on your calendar for next year. If you aren't brave (or stupid) enought to run 26+ miles, do the "Mayor's Walk", put on by the St. George Exchange Club. It starts at 7:00 am that covers the last 2 miles of the course and includes a T-shirt & scones after at the finish line. It is the perfect chance for families of runners and other interested spectators to drink in the excitement and see the course without major risk of blisters or bleeding nipples (really)....

See you next year!

Ok, it's time for a break from the monotony, doom & gloom of the real estate market to point out an absolute TREASURE sitting right here in Utah's Dixie. It is one of the perfect examples of why living here is so great! It is, of course, the Tuacahn Outdoor Ampitheatre & Center for the Arts.

For those who haven't been there, Tuacahn is located near the mouth of Snow Canyon State Park in Ivins, Utah ("St. George, Utah" for easy reference). Imagaine a 2000-seat ampitheare tucked up in a canyon below 1500' towering red sandstone cliffs....yes, it is amazing.

I just saw a sold-out performance of Les Miserables for the 2nd time this summer and was even more blown away than the first time! f you are familiar with the show, these 2 to the left absolutely stole the show as the characters they portrayed most often do in any casting of the program.

I've seen the show in London & Las Vegas and quite frankly, this was surprisingly comparable. My brother has seen it in even more venues and said the same. We ran into old friends now living in Huntingon Beach, CA who were absolutely mind-boggled at the setting & performances.

My brother & father were arguing about who should pay for the tickets. Many thanks to the winner (or loser) of that argument!

I'm going to make sure I see Big River before the season is out, (October 17 for Big River, the 18th for Les Mis). You should too!

Aspiring First-time Home Buyers who have been sitting on the proverbial real estate fence may see their "ship" coming in this year in the form of a new Federal Housing initiatives.

In the latest move by the U.S. government to stop the national housing & economic bleed, first-time buyers will be able to take advantage of a temporary tax credit of up to $7500.00.

The stipulations look like this:

-Home must be purchased between April 9, 2008 and July 1, 2009

-Single taxpayers with incomes up to $75,000 and married couples with incomes up to $150,000 qualify for full credit

-Only primary residences qualify (no 2nd homes, rentals, etc)

It's no doubt that one of the challenges the encomy faces in getting jump-started is that of fewer financing options for today's buyer. The Media isn't helping either, but despite their mass over-dramatization of the issue, we have to expand rather than contract to beat this current situation. One of the best ways to do that is to get first-time buyers off the fence and into the equity-producing tax shelters we call home ownership.

Don't Forget New FHA Limits
One program that has made a HUGE comeback this year and, quite frankly, seems to work on 99% of the deals I've seen it used in, is the FHA loan. New loan limits for FHA will be the greater of $271,050 or 115% of an area's median home price.

Conforming loan limits for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will be the greater of $417,000 or 115% of the an area's median home price; up to $625,000. In Washington County this will be $417,000.

Get detailed info here: http://www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com/.

So you ask, "how low do you think prices will go?"......"have we hit bottom?" You may even ask, "is the world coming to an end?" Ok, well I haven't been asked that, but I've been asked something similar during the woes of the current market.

Now CNBC Analyst Dennis Kneale raises what may be the most critical question of all: Is the current housing crisis really a "crisis?", or just a problem blown out of proportion? Take 2 minutes 28 seconds and see if his answer to the question matches yours by clicking the link below:

So the Summary looks something like this:

-1/3 are owned 'free & clear'

-1/2 of the remaning 80 million were bought before the year 2000

-The median home price is up 53% since then

-Overall, 95% of all mortgage holders still pay on time.

-That leaves us with maybe 4 million homes in trouble.

-Moreover, only 2% of the households in America are actually in foreclosure!

Hmmm......is this really a crisis, or the proper adjustment necessary to get home buyers back in the game?  You make the call!

I just came across a very interesing Wall Street Journal opinion column titled as much: "The Housing Crisis Is Over," stating that April 2008 may have been the "bottom" of housing crash that started in late 2005. A pretty wild healine indeed, yet if you take the time to read it I think you will see that this guy's opinion is largely based on fundamentals, not just the wishful thinking of another housing crash victim.

Let's just say that he is right.....prices should start coming back, right? Not so, says the writer: "For starters, a bottom does not mean that prices are about to return to the heady days of 2005. That probably won't happen for another 15 years. It just means that the trend is no longer getting worse, which is the critical factor."

His logic is based on the following key points:

• The current housing bust is nearly three years old (no longer a new thing)
• New home sales are down a staggering 63% from peak levels of 1.4 million & ousing starts have fallen more than 50% and, adjusted for population growth, are back to the trough levels of 1982.
• Residential construction is close to 15-year lows at 3.8% of GDP; by the fourth quarter of this year, it will probably hit the lowest level ever.
• The very same thing that caused the bust will bring it back to life: Affordability. 

"Mortgage rates have come down 70 basis points from their highs. As a result, it now takes 19% of monthly income for the average home buyer, and 31% of monthly income for the first-time home buyer, to purchase a house. In other words, homes on average are back to being as affordable as during the best of times in the 1990s. Numerous households that had been priced out of the market can now afford to get in."

I see some major logic in this guy's argument, and he certainly supports my personal theories that even if sales do increase, values will take a LONG time to recover. (See http://www.gostgeorge.com/blog_post.asp?post=14411)

By posting this I don't for a second imply that I agree with this opinion, but it makes for great conversation. What do you think? Somebody give me their take on this thing!

CLICK HERE FOR THE ENTIRE ARTICLE

I work on a regular basis with a large volume of “expired listings.” As a matter of fact, these clients account for 25% of the Larkin Group’s total sales volume. These are Sellers who spent 3, 6, perhaps even 12 months on the market and their listing term finally “expired” without the home selling.

We’ve had tremendous success helping these individuals the next go-around in getting their home sold, which means that I also spend a fair amount of time communicating with potential clients from this group.

There are many characteristics that the expired listing sellers share, the main two being that #1 – they still own their home, and #2 – they are NOT HAPPY about still owning their home. They make lots of frustrated accusations about ‘why’ the home didn’t sell….the agent, the market, the brokerage, the weather, the neighbors, even their ex-spouse.

However, can I share with you the absolute #1 thing I hear from that group, bar-none? “We are just going to wait for the market to come back...and besides nothing is selling anyway!”

Why do they think the market will magically bounce back say, next year? Two reasons:1. Because it would financially benefit them if there were a quick recovery and… 2. because the market has never done this in Washington County before, therefore most people are in denial about the reality of the situation.

Homes ARE Selling

First of all, things ARE selling and the world hasn’t come to an end.  225 listings sold last month alone. Add to the fact that there are actually TWO sides to every transaction, (buyer and seller), and you are looking at 450 individuals who bought or sold on a monthly basis!  

But I digress…..Many Sellers are frustrated with the disparity between what they thought their home was going to be worth and what is actually is. They are concerned about a “paper” loss, if that makes sense. They want to ‘wait it out’, yet they may be waiting a LONG time. Am I saying that it is a bad time to buy? Well not necessarily at all. I’m just pointing out that statistically, Sellers may be looking for a pot of gold in terms of a short turn-around to real estate values.  Allow me to statistically prove my point.

If you look back over the past 10-20 years, US home appreciation has never been above around 6% on a year over year average.

                  US Home Appreciation over past 10 years

Along comes the recent housing boom and we start seeing 30%, 50% or even higher appreciation! As a matter of fact, it was 73% in Washington County over the past 5 years to be exact. The problem is that at the same time, wages were NOT increasing at those rates, and many buyers were getting into loans they could not eventually afford.

Fast forward to 2007/2008. Those same buyers now have their loans “resetting” to much higher interest rates, the respective profession they work in is suffering due to the housing market so their personal income is down, and the their home is now worse significantly less than what they paid for it.

Add that to the fact that many of the very buyers they need can’t purchase their home because they are waiting to sell their own homes, or can’t qualify for a loan in the current mortgage climate. It’s a vicious cycle, quite frankly, and one that most civilians (a.k.a “Sellers”) haven’t fully considered. Hence their (misguided) optimism.

And why should they have considered it? They are, of course, civilians, not real estate professionals. It’s not their job to consider it. It’s mine, and that of other real estate people who take themselves seriously.

Segway back to the comments about historical home appreciation. Can anyone really believe that we will EVER see that kind of appreciation again? And if so, is it really going to happen immediately following a real estate crash? No, it’s not.

So as Sellers consider their options and look forward to a future market recovery, they should consider the following:

1. Home values will have to stop falling before they can rise.
2. When they do stop falling they most likely will remain static for a period of time….could be months, could be years!
3. Then they will start creeping back up at a conservative pace, say 3-6% annually.

That all summarized, you can clearly see that hoping for your home to be worth more, or even as much as today in the next 12 months is wishful thinking at best.

Prognosis:

At the end of the day Sellers may do as they see fit. They are adults and can make their own decisions. For those who don’t need to sell, please leave your home off the market! You're just clogging up the pipes so-to-speak. But my advice to those who want to “wait” for a shorter-term, miraculous turn-around to a currently frigid real estate climate would be this: pack your long-johns, it’s gonna be a cold winter.

Your agent tried to warn you, but you just wouldn’t listen. You thought you could save some real dough buying a short-sale. Now months have passed and you didn’t even get the home you wanted!

This can either be a long or short post. It all depends on how much convincing you need, which will then determine how much you elect to read.

If you’re a Buyer, you’ve probably been enticed by all sorts of real estate-sexy terms like “short sale”, “foreclosure”, or “bank-owned.”

Yes, just hearing those words may have you turned on for a “killer deal” as we speak.

As a Seller you’ve heard those same terms and they’ve had more nasty connotations. You  might have said to yourself, “those are things that happen to other people, not me.” Or perhaps you have even become aware of the fact that those very bank-owned, foreclosure, or “REO” properties are robbing you BLIND of your equity. And they are, believe me they are, but that is a discussion for another day.

However, this post is mainly devoted to Buyers. After getting really excited about the short-sale, you call your agent and tell them you want to make a really low offer and save some serious cash. Your realtor knows better, and tries to dissuade you from making the offer. “Let’s find another home” he or she says, but you just think they want a quick sale. You can’t be stopped. You are one savvy buyer and hell-bent on making a good deal.

Weeks pass, and still no word from the listing agent. Your agent tries and tries to call the listing agent to find out what is up, but they always get the same response: “we’re waiting for approval from the bank.” As the weeks pass, so do other buying opportunities on properties with great equity in them and that you can actually close on in 3-4 weeks. You, of course, are still living where you don’t want to and it’s driving you nuts.

Finally after say a 4-6 week wait, the bank comes back and tells you: “Sorry, we can’t accept your offer. Please bring us a higher offer.” Or better yet, “sorry we received a higher offer than yours and we will be pursuing it.” Or let’s say that they actually accept it. Now they need you to close within an EXACT number of days or it is dead and they have to reapprove…yuck! (Hey that 4-6 week scenario may be conservative...I've seen MONTHS pass before approvals).

We will be closing a short sale transaction next week. It took us 5 months, 7 offers, and probably 100 calls to the bank to get to this point. I am hearing figures of only 10% of short sales making it to the closing table, but who can be sure how many really do?

But it is a “short” sale…can’t I save money?

Here is the deal: The very NATURE of a short-sale is that the bank is taking a loss on the deal. Why in the world would they want you to give you a good deal in the process? Sure they need it sold, but they aren’t stupid and they will make dang sure that they exact every penny they can out of the deal in the process. They don’t care about you, me, or even the Seller – only their bottom line.

What is it with Human Nature?

There is nothing more compelling than the thought of either saving or losing money. Buyers in today’s market live in absolute fear of buying something that may lose value, or that they might have saved money on in some way. Sellers suffer from the same malady, only from the opposite perspective. They notion of selling their home and “leaving money on the table” is almost too much for most Sellers to bear. That is their hard-earned money dammit, right? Well not really. The equity you have on paper is just make-believe until you sell and get it out – just like the stock market.

So what DO you buy?

There are hundreds of phenomenal buys sitting right under your nose in our market right now, being offered by either A: motivated sellers with the equity to negotiate, or B: Motivated banks who have already foreclosed on the property (the short-sale never worked) and they have it back on the market at a great price so they can get rid of it quickly.

Any while you’re at it, please take caution with so-called “short-sale” or “foreclosure specialists.” These are usually just brand-new agents looking to cash in on the current market, or unscrupulous investors who want to save money at your family’s expense. If it seems too good to be true, it probably is.

Summary: Short sales are a necessary evil in today’s market, but they do suck. They suck for several key reasons:

1. They are, in essence, a "mirage." They look good from afar, but they end up sucking the life and energy out of everybody involved in the process: Buyer, seller, agents, Title Company, mortgage lender, the whole works. If you can avoid them, do.

2. As a segway to #1, statistically, you will probably never get that home. Really, you probably won't. You will either give up before the bank approves, or someone else will outbid you in the process.

3. Because of #1 and #2, they don't even end up being the "great buy" you wanted. I just sold one in downtown St. George for $9000.00 OVER the listing price! Yes, you read that correctly, OVER. Does that sound like a good deal to you?

Buyer beware, what more can I say?

I've been away a few days and apologize for not getting this info up quicker.  This is fantastic news for residents of any county in the Nation, and specifically for Washington County buyers.  For a complete list of limits for all Utah counties, click here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/hicostlook.cfm

The FHA was established in 1934 to help borrowers, particularly those with low incomes, purchase homes by guaranteeing banks that those loans would be repaid should the borrower default. But the agency's loan limits have generally lagged behind those of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and as home prices climbed dramatically and lenders with looser underwriting standards proliferated the agency became less and less of a player in the mortgage market.

As a matter of fact, FHA insured loans have been mentioned as a possible escape hatch for borrowers who may be unable to make payments on their current adjustable rate mortgages when their interest rates reset over the next year, but that plan has its' challenges.

FHA financing is NOT the same as subprime financing.  It provides financing to borrowers with some credit issues and lower down payments, but it requires documentation of income and strives to prevent “payment shock” where a buyer jumps from a low rental payment to a high mortgage payment

This is good stuff, and in addition to the benefit of current mortgage rates (which I commented on HERE), this will allow many more buyers to realize the dream of home ownership in 2008. 

As a specialist in working with expired listings, I have been asked multiple times in recent weeks, "can this increase help sellers in Washington County?" The jury is still out. The real challenge lies in the fact that according to Lawrence Yun, chief Economist for NAR, as many of 80% of today's Buyers are also SELLERS trying to sell their current home before being able to buy. Ouch.